Rupiah Weakening Continues, Here Are The Driving Sentiments

The rupiah exchange rate closed lower against the US dollar on Tuesday (11/3). Trump's tariff policy and the widening state budget deficit projection are still negative catalysts affecting the movement of the Garuda currency. 

Quoting Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate was recorded as weakening 0.26% at Rp16,409 per US dollar. Meanwhile, referring to the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of Bank Indonesia (BI), the rupiah weakened further by around 0.64% to Rp16,326 per US dollar. 

Ibrahim Assuaibi, President Director of PT Laba Forexindo Berjangka, assessed that today's decline was influenced by the 2025 state budget deficit projection of 2.9% issued by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. This figure almost touched the maximum deficit limit set by the government at 3%. According to him, the swelling state budget deficit was partly due to jumbo spending for strategic government programs, such as Free Nutritious Meals (MBG). 

"There are concerns over global trade tensions and a weakening domestic economy after President Prabowo Subianto announced a series of fiscal policies," Ibrahim said in a written statement, Tuesday (11/3). 

Meanwhile, Doo Financial Futures Analyst Lukman Leong saw the weakening of the rupiah also due to weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment in Indonesia. 

"Investors are waiting for important data, namely retail sales which are expected to show low growth, namely 0.4%," Lukman explained to Kontan, Tuesday (11/3). 

Lukman said that the projection further emphasizes the weakening of domestic demand. His projection is that the weakening of the rupiah will continue tomorrow. 

He predicted that the rupiah will be in the range of IDR 16,400-IDR 16,500 tomorrow per US dollar. Meanwhile, according to Ibrahim, tomorrow the rupiah will be at IDR 16,390-IDR 16,460 per US dollar. 

Tag: Jisdor Rupiah Exchange