Economic Growth Projection For Q2 Through 13th Salary And Eid Al-Adha

The 13th salary for Civil Servants (PNS) and the Eid al-Adha celebration are predicted to be drivers of economic growth in the second quarter of 2025, but the impact may not be too significant in the long term, because both phenomena occur every year. 

Wijayanto Samirin, an Economist at Paramadina University, explained that the 13th salary totaling IDR 21 trillion is predicted to have a positive impact on economic growth in the second quarter. 

"The 13th salary worth IDR 21 trillion will certainly have a positive impact on economic growth in Q2, at least it will boost growth by 0.3%-0.4% compared to without the 13th salary," Wijayanto told Kontan.co.id, Monday (12/5). 

However, he also emphasized that because this phenomenon occurs every year, its impact will not be too significant for annual growth in the coming year. 

On the other hand, the Eid al-Adha celebration is also expected to increase money circulation in the community. 

"The same is true for Eid al-Adha, although it increases money circulation by around IDR 25-40 trillion, but this is also an annual phenomenon," said Wijayanto. 

He emphasized that although there is a possibility of an increase in money circulation, its impact on annual growth next year may still be insignificant. 

Referring to previous experience, Wijayanto reminded that declining purchasing power could affect the results of the celebration. 

"In fact, if we do not learn from the phenomenon of Eid al-Fitr 2025, where money circulation was only IDR 109 trillion, dropping more than IDR 20 trillion from the previous year due to weakening purchasing power, the same thing could also happen with Eid al-Adha 2025," added Wijayanto. 

Thus, he projected that the impact on annual growth could actually be negative. 

Tag: Economic Eid Al-Adha PNS